It should be safe to say that we have seen two different Minnesota teams this season. The same team that has handled Ohio State 84-71, Oklahoma State 86-66, and Clemson 78-60 has also failed to reach seventy in their five losses to Butler, Utah, Oklahoma, DePaul, and Iowa.
Fortunately, the good version of the Gophers have reared their heads in their most recent games. The 7-5 squad opened up with three losses in their first five games, but since November 21 they have won six of their last eight and four of five in December.
So what is the difference, and is this something they can maintain? We look at the numbers to see what they tell us.
The bad offensively
In Minnesota's five losses, they have had strong outings of 62, 56, 69, 68, and 52, which averages out to a mere 61.4 points per game. In those games they are 110 of 306 from the field for just 35.9%.
Three point shooting is something the Gophers have hung their hats on in the last couple of games. But in the losing efforts they are 39 of 142 for a mere 27.5%. That is a significantly low number when one looks at how dependent they are on the long ball. 46.4% of all shot attempts were 3-pointers in these games.
Minnesota also got to the foul line 16.6 times per game, but the results were woeful. They made just 48 of 83 for 57.8%. By comparison, if they had shot free throws at that rate all season long, they would be ranked 349th out of 353 Division I teams.
The Gophers.had 60 assists against 62 turnovers.
The bad defensively
Minnesota's five opponents were 122 for 285 from the field for 42.8%. They also gave up 34 of 82 three-pointers for 41.5%. That is a very high percentage of made three's even though they weren't taken in bulk. By comparison, the Gophers shot sixty more trifectas than their opponents in the five games. On the other hand, the other teams got to the foul line 23 more times than Minnesota. The opponents also played a cleaner ball-handling game with 64 assists compared to 53 turnovers.
The good offensively
In Minnesota's seven wins they converted 212 of 414 shots for 51.2%. They nailed 69 of 165 shots from behind the arc for 41.8%. Foul shooting improved to 80.4% as they made 90 of 112. Assists to turnovers also looked better at 122 compared to 99. Their trips to the line basically stayed the same with the average being 16. The amount of 3-point tries was down but only slightly to 39.9% of their shot attempts.
The good defensively
The defensive numbers in the seven wins were significantly better. They allowed 38.6% shooting, and only 25.4% from behind the arc. Opponents also shot 17 less free throws than the Gophers during this stretch. Finally, there was a total turnaround in assists to turnovers to the rate of 72 to 104.
There is no doubt that these numbers can be skewed; Minnesota lost to five high major teams while four of the wins were against Cleveland State, Central Michigan, North Dakota, and Florida International. But there were still three victories against Power Five schools. Those numbers also indicate a measurable improvement.
The three Power Five wins
In the three wins over Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma State, the Gophers were 91 of 164 from the field for and impressive 55.5%. The 3-point shooting also improved to 40.3% on 25 of 62 shooting. Surprisingly, as the outside shooting improved, the reliance decreased. 37.8% of their attempts were 3-pointers in those wins compared to 62.2% two's. Minnesota was 41 of 52 from the line for 78.9%. Assists to turnovers also improved to 52 to 41.
The defensive improvements also held up against these three quality foes. They gave up 41.8% shooting, 31.9% three-point shooting, and allowed only 29 assists while causing 39 turnovers.
The results
Let's compare the five losses to high major teams to the three Power Five wins. The numerical improvements are obvious.
Offensively, shooting went up an unbelievable twenty points from 35.9% to 55.5%. 3-point shooting went up from 27.5% to 40.3%. In these games, Pitino opted to go inside the arc more. 37.8% of the shots were three's compared to 46.4% in the losses. Foul shooting went up from 57.8% to 78.9%. Assists to turnovers also go much better at .97 to 1 compared to 1.27 to 1.
This proves the offense has simply started clicking a some players have gotten used to new roles and just about all of them have gotten more comfortable. The improvement is measurable in almost every category.
Defensively, the opponents field goal shooting isn't as noticeable. Field goal percentage got one point better for Minnesota at 41.8% compared to 42.8%. Three-point shooting showed a huge improvement. Opponents assists to turnovers also flip-flopped from 1.2 to 1 to .74 to 1.
Individually
Marcus Carr
Power Five wins - 22.7 points per game; FG%, 22 for 45, 48.9%; 3-pt%, 5-15, 33.3%; FT%, 19-22, 86.4%; 27 assists; 13 turnovers.
Losses - 9.2 points per game; FG%, 16 for 62, 25.8%; 3-pt%, 5-24, 20.8%; FT%, 9-24, 37.5%; 31 assists, 14 turnovers.
Carr has been better across the board in the wins. His scoring average has leaped from 9.2 to 22.7 points per game. His field goal percentage went up 20%, and 3-pt% rose 13%. Carr has gotten to the foul line eight times per game against the Power Five compared to four times in the losses. His assists rose from 6.2 to 9.
Gabe Kalscheur
Power Five wins - 21.3 points per game; FG% 22-36, 61.1%; 3-pt%, 11-21, 52.4%; FT% 9-11, 81.8%; 4 assists, 4 turnovers.
Losses - 8.8 points per game; FG% 14-56, 20%; 3-pt% 9-40, 22.5%; FT% 3-6, 50%; 4 assists, 1 turnover.
The numbers speak for themselves. With an injury to Payton Willis, Kalscheur took his game to a different level. Scoring average went from 8.8 to 21.3, field goal percentage jumped 40%, and in the three wins he made two more 3-pointers on nineteen less attempts.
Daniel Oturu
Power Five wins - 19.0 points per game; FG%. 25-35, 71.4%; FT%. 7-9, 77.8%; 8.3 rebounds; 8 turnovers, 9 blocked shots.
Losses - 20.3 points per game; 39-60, 65%; FT%. 18-27, 66.7%; 13.4 rebounds; 18 turnovers, 6 blocked shots.
Much like we thought, the improvement has been based around the guards. That is not to knock Oturu but to praise him. He has been a constant win or lose. The amount of shots has been about the same, and he actually has gotten to the line less in wins. His field goal percentage is five percent higher in the wins. Defensively, his rim protection has been better in the wins to the tune of 3 blocks per game versus 1.2.
Alihan Demir
Power Five Wins - 6.3 points per game; FG%. 7-14, 50%; 3-pt%. 2-4, 50%; FT 3-4, 75%; 5 rebounds;
Losses - 8.4 points per game; FG%, 14-43, 32.6%; 3-pt%. 3-pt%. 5-11, 45.5%; 4.4 rebounds.
Demir has been a solid addition to this team. He has actually gotten better as the season has gone on. He is averaging nine points and five rebounds in the last five games. He has been more efficient. Demir has scored more while taking less shots. He has a role, but it is more important that the ball is in the hands of Kalscheur, Carr, and Oturu. But when he has gotten an opportunity he has made the most of it.
Summary
Minnesota seems to be playing with a comfort level that they can sustain going into Big Ten play. The offense has made major strides even with the injury to Payton Willis. Make no mistake, the improvements reside around Kalscheur and Carr. The duo is averaging 26 more points in the Power Five wins than they did in the losses. Their combined field goal percentage is 30% higher in those wins, and their 3-point shooting is 22% better.
There are also team factors involved as well. Foul shooting totals are night and day, and the Gophers are doing much better at defending the 3-point line.
Willis should be joining the team soon, which should only help. There is no reason to think this group is playing over their heads once we look at why they are playing well.
Fortunately, the good version of the Gophers have reared their heads in their most recent games. The 7-5 squad opened up with three losses in their first five games, but since November 21 they have won six of their last eight and four of five in December.
So what is the difference, and is this something they can maintain? We look at the numbers to see what they tell us.
The bad offensively
In Minnesota's five losses, they have had strong outings of 62, 56, 69, 68, and 52, which averages out to a mere 61.4 points per game. In those games they are 110 of 306 from the field for just 35.9%.
Three point shooting is something the Gophers have hung their hats on in the last couple of games. But in the losing efforts they are 39 of 142 for a mere 27.5%. That is a significantly low number when one looks at how dependent they are on the long ball. 46.4% of all shot attempts were 3-pointers in these games.
Minnesota also got to the foul line 16.6 times per game, but the results were woeful. They made just 48 of 83 for 57.8%. By comparison, if they had shot free throws at that rate all season long, they would be ranked 349th out of 353 Division I teams.
The Gophers.had 60 assists against 62 turnovers.
The bad defensively
Minnesota's five opponents were 122 for 285 from the field for 42.8%. They also gave up 34 of 82 three-pointers for 41.5%. That is a very high percentage of made three's even though they weren't taken in bulk. By comparison, the Gophers shot sixty more trifectas than their opponents in the five games. On the other hand, the other teams got to the foul line 23 more times than Minnesota. The opponents also played a cleaner ball-handling game with 64 assists compared to 53 turnovers.
The good offensively
In Minnesota's seven wins they converted 212 of 414 shots for 51.2%. They nailed 69 of 165 shots from behind the arc for 41.8%. Foul shooting improved to 80.4% as they made 90 of 112. Assists to turnovers also looked better at 122 compared to 99. Their trips to the line basically stayed the same with the average being 16. The amount of 3-point tries was down but only slightly to 39.9% of their shot attempts.
The good defensively
The defensive numbers in the seven wins were significantly better. They allowed 38.6% shooting, and only 25.4% from behind the arc. Opponents also shot 17 less free throws than the Gophers during this stretch. Finally, there was a total turnaround in assists to turnovers to the rate of 72 to 104.
There is no doubt that these numbers can be skewed; Minnesota lost to five high major teams while four of the wins were against Cleveland State, Central Michigan, North Dakota, and Florida International. But there were still three victories against Power Five schools. Those numbers also indicate a measurable improvement.
The three Power Five wins
In the three wins over Clemson, Ohio State, and Oklahoma State, the Gophers were 91 of 164 from the field for and impressive 55.5%. The 3-point shooting also improved to 40.3% on 25 of 62 shooting. Surprisingly, as the outside shooting improved, the reliance decreased. 37.8% of their attempts were 3-pointers in those wins compared to 62.2% two's. Minnesota was 41 of 52 from the line for 78.9%. Assists to turnovers also improved to 52 to 41.
The defensive improvements also held up against these three quality foes. They gave up 41.8% shooting, 31.9% three-point shooting, and allowed only 29 assists while causing 39 turnovers.
The results
Let's compare the five losses to high major teams to the three Power Five wins. The numerical improvements are obvious.
Offensively, shooting went up an unbelievable twenty points from 35.9% to 55.5%. 3-point shooting went up from 27.5% to 40.3%. In these games, Pitino opted to go inside the arc more. 37.8% of the shots were three's compared to 46.4% in the losses. Foul shooting went up from 57.8% to 78.9%. Assists to turnovers also go much better at .97 to 1 compared to 1.27 to 1.
This proves the offense has simply started clicking a some players have gotten used to new roles and just about all of them have gotten more comfortable. The improvement is measurable in almost every category.
Defensively, the opponents field goal shooting isn't as noticeable. Field goal percentage got one point better for Minnesota at 41.8% compared to 42.8%. Three-point shooting showed a huge improvement. Opponents assists to turnovers also flip-flopped from 1.2 to 1 to .74 to 1.
Individually
Marcus Carr
Power Five wins - 22.7 points per game; FG%, 22 for 45, 48.9%; 3-pt%, 5-15, 33.3%; FT%, 19-22, 86.4%; 27 assists; 13 turnovers.
Losses - 9.2 points per game; FG%, 16 for 62, 25.8%; 3-pt%, 5-24, 20.8%; FT%, 9-24, 37.5%; 31 assists, 14 turnovers.
Carr has been better across the board in the wins. His scoring average has leaped from 9.2 to 22.7 points per game. His field goal percentage went up 20%, and 3-pt% rose 13%. Carr has gotten to the foul line eight times per game against the Power Five compared to four times in the losses. His assists rose from 6.2 to 9.
Gabe Kalscheur
Power Five wins - 21.3 points per game; FG% 22-36, 61.1%; 3-pt%, 11-21, 52.4%; FT% 9-11, 81.8%; 4 assists, 4 turnovers.
Losses - 8.8 points per game; FG% 14-56, 20%; 3-pt% 9-40, 22.5%; FT% 3-6, 50%; 4 assists, 1 turnover.
The numbers speak for themselves. With an injury to Payton Willis, Kalscheur took his game to a different level. Scoring average went from 8.8 to 21.3, field goal percentage jumped 40%, and in the three wins he made two more 3-pointers on nineteen less attempts.
Daniel Oturu
Power Five wins - 19.0 points per game; FG%. 25-35, 71.4%; FT%. 7-9, 77.8%; 8.3 rebounds; 8 turnovers, 9 blocked shots.
Losses - 20.3 points per game; 39-60, 65%; FT%. 18-27, 66.7%; 13.4 rebounds; 18 turnovers, 6 blocked shots.
Much like we thought, the improvement has been based around the guards. That is not to knock Oturu but to praise him. He has been a constant win or lose. The amount of shots has been about the same, and he actually has gotten to the line less in wins. His field goal percentage is five percent higher in the wins. Defensively, his rim protection has been better in the wins to the tune of 3 blocks per game versus 1.2.
Alihan Demir
Power Five Wins - 6.3 points per game; FG%. 7-14, 50%; 3-pt%. 2-4, 50%; FT 3-4, 75%; 5 rebounds;
Losses - 8.4 points per game; FG%, 14-43, 32.6%; 3-pt%. 3-pt%. 5-11, 45.5%; 4.4 rebounds.
Demir has been a solid addition to this team. He has actually gotten better as the season has gone on. He is averaging nine points and five rebounds in the last five games. He has been more efficient. Demir has scored more while taking less shots. He has a role, but it is more important that the ball is in the hands of Kalscheur, Carr, and Oturu. But when he has gotten an opportunity he has made the most of it.
Summary
Minnesota seems to be playing with a comfort level that they can sustain going into Big Ten play. The offense has made major strides even with the injury to Payton Willis. Make no mistake, the improvements reside around Kalscheur and Carr. The duo is averaging 26 more points in the Power Five wins than they did in the losses. Their combined field goal percentage is 30% higher in those wins, and their 3-point shooting is 22% better.
There are also team factors involved as well. Foul shooting totals are night and day, and the Gophers are doing much better at defending the 3-point line.
Willis should be joining the team soon, which should only help. There is no reason to think this group is playing over their heads once we look at why they are playing well.
