As I mentioned in the other thread, our 3rd down (and fourth down) defense killed us in this game. So I was looking at Connelly's advanced stats with interest. If you can believe it, our 3rd and short success rate on both the offense and defense is ranked #1 in the country. On offense, our 3rd and short success % is 100%. On defense, we are holding the offense to 33.3% success. I suppose our wildcat is to thank for our offense, but would have never guessed we are that high on both sides.
What then gets interesting, is that on 3rd and medium (not quite sure how that is divided), our success rates drop to ranks of 109 and 112 respectively from offense to defense with percentages of success rate at 40.6 for offense and 56.7 for defense. The Iowa game highlighted how we couldn't get off the field even when it wasn't 3rd and short. I think it tells us that when we can have our linebackers and safeties sell out for the run, guys like Barber, Cashman, etc., usually stop the short yardage run.
Finally, the post-game win probability based upon the stats for the particular game, would have had the Gophers winning 26% of the time, which is higher than I would have expected. Connelly defines that stat as follows:
“Based on the key stats from this game — success rate, big plays, field position components, turnovers, etc. — you could have expected to win it X percent of the time.” Luck and randomness play a major role in the game of football, and this is an attempt to look at just how random a given outcome may have been."
What then gets interesting, is that on 3rd and medium (not quite sure how that is divided), our success rates drop to ranks of 109 and 112 respectively from offense to defense with percentages of success rate at 40.6 for offense and 56.7 for defense. The Iowa game highlighted how we couldn't get off the field even when it wasn't 3rd and short. I think it tells us that when we can have our linebackers and safeties sell out for the run, guys like Barber, Cashman, etc., usually stop the short yardage run.
Finally, the post-game win probability based upon the stats for the particular game, would have had the Gophers winning 26% of the time, which is higher than I would have expected. Connelly defines that stat as follows:
“Based on the key stats from this game — success rate, big plays, field position components, turnovers, etc. — you could have expected to win it X percent of the time.” Luck and randomness play a major role in the game of football, and this is an attempt to look at just how random a given outcome may have been."
