Schedule breaks into four 3-game segments nicely:
1) all three (first year of only 3) non-con are at home...get Oregon State, Indiana State, bye week, Colorado State.
you've got to like our odds in those three...but, we struggled to beat CSU (overtime), Kent State and Ohio last year in non-con (both fg wins).
2) then we get at Penn State, Iowa here and at Maryland.
need to win one of those three, two would be nice. Figure Maryland best odds for a win. But, we beat Penn State in '13, destroyed Iowa in '14. Penn State had a lot of turnover on roster and staff. Maryland all new staff.
3) then we get Rutgers here, at Illinois, Purdue here
sweep those three. Illinois beat us in '14. All new staff at Rutgers. Huge staff and roster turnover for Illini. Purdue must have over half of staff new.
4) we finish at Nebraska, Northwestern here, at Wisconsin. We beat Nebraska in '13 and '14, beat Northwestern in '13 qnd '14. Have to beat Wisconsin sometime.
win one of those three, two would be nice. Figure Northwestern best odds.
so 3-0, 1-2. 3-0, 1-2. that would be 8-4 overall. 5-4 in conference. should get you a decent Bowl game. You can get to that by just taking care of business in games you should be favored in and handling Maryland and Northwestern.
I don't think that is an overly optimistic scenario.
Do all that plus pull off another win or two from IA, WI, NE or PSU and now you are looking at 9-3 or 10-2 and we are at that next step forward from 2013 and 2014 we were hoping for.
keys:
OL: it all starts here....team will be as good or bad as this unit. Oline lost a ton of guys...hoping on two jucos to be major contributors, hoping on Moore to develop another step...hoping Pirsig is healthy and has a big final year....after that, I don't know what will happen. Claeys has thrown out the Connelly and Dovich names, but that is about all. New guy Bart Miller has his hands full. Need Mayes, Oseland, Weyler,
QB: get a healthy Mitch playing like (and a little better) he did post-Kill (minus Wisconsin game). Hope Croft is a more than able back-up or a true frosh blossoms quickly. I actually feel OK about this spot.
RB: Strength of the offense. Need those two-backs to take another step forward, hope juco McCrary adds something, maybe JFC or JJ surprise.
TE/H-Back: Lingen stays healthy, takes another step forward...same with Woz. Maybe Hart, Scarver, Beebe or Witham find a role in the new offense. You can feel OK about this spot.
PASSING: Jay Johnson figures out how to replace KJ Maye. Returning Woli, Carter and Lingen can do some things; after that a lot of questions...Can you mix in a RB as a rcvr? Maybe you find a role for Strevy? Can you get something out of Woz as a rcvr? Does one or more of Still, Gentry, Holland, Register become reliable and a speed/size threat? Does Mayer or a true frosh surprise? After Bart Miller, Brian Anderson has hardest job on offense, but he has a lot of guys to work with. Better o-line, better QB play, improved backs
K: Santoso takes a step forward.
Safety: Travis comes back like they hope he does and Rogers comes back like they hope he does and this unit is a strength That would be huge. Some experienced depth, but they need McGhee and Ayinde to get better. Or they need one or more of Dior, Craighton, Huff, Cashman to step up.
CB: Need Myrick to be huge and healthy. Need three guys from Hardin, Shenault, Buford, Durr, Thomas, Winfield to be Big Ten ready. Nice job by Sawvel to get bodies.
LB: After Lynn and Poock, I don't know what they do and Poock seems injury prone. Celestin and Huff move well and tackle well but seem a little undersized against some of the big Big Ten lines. Rallis going to go one more year? Maybe Everett Williams or Dixon impresses in Spring? Jaylen Waters might be the guy to step up. Claeys seems to like Jaylen. Has a little more size. I like the three LB recruits, true frosh may push older guys.
DT: actually looks like a strength with Richardson, Ekpe, juco Jackson, Stelter, Moore and Timms a nice three deep.
DE: need Hank and Elmore to make big steps forward. after that, a LOT of questions: Kafo, Gibson, DeLatti, a new frosh de guy? Sawvel and Phelps may have to be creative here.
P: Santoso has a big leg. Some walk-ons in the system.
LS returns.
Does Claeys as the HC change the overall performance? What does O'Brien bring to the mix in the secondary? Sounds like he might also have special teams along with one of the new ga/qc guys. Does Jay Johnson improve the offense? Does a Jay Johnson/Adam Weber combo improve QB play? Does Miller and two new GA/QC guys with oline background improve oline play? Does Keanon Cooper bring a little something to the secondary as a GA?
Half a year to Fall camp.
1) all three (first year of only 3) non-con are at home...get Oregon State, Indiana State, bye week, Colorado State.
you've got to like our odds in those three...but, we struggled to beat CSU (overtime), Kent State and Ohio last year in non-con (both fg wins).
2) then we get at Penn State, Iowa here and at Maryland.
need to win one of those three, two would be nice. Figure Maryland best odds for a win. But, we beat Penn State in '13, destroyed Iowa in '14. Penn State had a lot of turnover on roster and staff. Maryland all new staff.
3) then we get Rutgers here, at Illinois, Purdue here
sweep those three. Illinois beat us in '14. All new staff at Rutgers. Huge staff and roster turnover for Illini. Purdue must have over half of staff new.
4) we finish at Nebraska, Northwestern here, at Wisconsin. We beat Nebraska in '13 and '14, beat Northwestern in '13 qnd '14. Have to beat Wisconsin sometime.
win one of those three, two would be nice. Figure Northwestern best odds.
so 3-0, 1-2. 3-0, 1-2. that would be 8-4 overall. 5-4 in conference. should get you a decent Bowl game. You can get to that by just taking care of business in games you should be favored in and handling Maryland and Northwestern.
I don't think that is an overly optimistic scenario.
Do all that plus pull off another win or two from IA, WI, NE or PSU and now you are looking at 9-3 or 10-2 and we are at that next step forward from 2013 and 2014 we were hoping for.
keys:
OL: it all starts here....team will be as good or bad as this unit. Oline lost a ton of guys...hoping on two jucos to be major contributors, hoping on Moore to develop another step...hoping Pirsig is healthy and has a big final year....after that, I don't know what will happen. Claeys has thrown out the Connelly and Dovich names, but that is about all. New guy Bart Miller has his hands full. Need Mayes, Oseland, Weyler,
QB: get a healthy Mitch playing like (and a little better) he did post-Kill (minus Wisconsin game). Hope Croft is a more than able back-up or a true frosh blossoms quickly. I actually feel OK about this spot.
RB: Strength of the offense. Need those two-backs to take another step forward, hope juco McCrary adds something, maybe JFC or JJ surprise.
TE/H-Back: Lingen stays healthy, takes another step forward...same with Woz. Maybe Hart, Scarver, Beebe or Witham find a role in the new offense. You can feel OK about this spot.
PASSING: Jay Johnson figures out how to replace KJ Maye. Returning Woli, Carter and Lingen can do some things; after that a lot of questions...Can you mix in a RB as a rcvr? Maybe you find a role for Strevy? Can you get something out of Woz as a rcvr? Does one or more of Still, Gentry, Holland, Register become reliable and a speed/size threat? Does Mayer or a true frosh surprise? After Bart Miller, Brian Anderson has hardest job on offense, but he has a lot of guys to work with. Better o-line, better QB play, improved backs
K: Santoso takes a step forward.
Safety: Travis comes back like they hope he does and Rogers comes back like they hope he does and this unit is a strength That would be huge. Some experienced depth, but they need McGhee and Ayinde to get better. Or they need one or more of Dior, Craighton, Huff, Cashman to step up.
CB: Need Myrick to be huge and healthy. Need three guys from Hardin, Shenault, Buford, Durr, Thomas, Winfield to be Big Ten ready. Nice job by Sawvel to get bodies.
LB: After Lynn and Poock, I don't know what they do and Poock seems injury prone. Celestin and Huff move well and tackle well but seem a little undersized against some of the big Big Ten lines. Rallis going to go one more year? Maybe Everett Williams or Dixon impresses in Spring? Jaylen Waters might be the guy to step up. Claeys seems to like Jaylen. Has a little more size. I like the three LB recruits, true frosh may push older guys.
DT: actually looks like a strength with Richardson, Ekpe, juco Jackson, Stelter, Moore and Timms a nice three deep.
DE: need Hank and Elmore to make big steps forward. after that, a LOT of questions: Kafo, Gibson, DeLatti, a new frosh de guy? Sawvel and Phelps may have to be creative here.
P: Santoso has a big leg. Some walk-ons in the system.
LS returns.
Does Claeys as the HC change the overall performance? What does O'Brien bring to the mix in the secondary? Sounds like he might also have special teams along with one of the new ga/qc guys. Does Jay Johnson improve the offense? Does a Jay Johnson/Adam Weber combo improve QB play? Does Miller and two new GA/QC guys with oline background improve oline play? Does Keanon Cooper bring a little something to the secondary as a GA?
Half a year to Fall camp.
