I have an EE degree and a math minor from the U of M. So basic probability is easy....but this is more complicated than that. My question is this: Regarding needing to win 3 games to win the Super Bowl....what is the percent possibility of winning IF....you can cheat to win in one game? Assuming every game is 50/50? Normal math/logic says 50% to win 1 of 2 (with cheating in 1 game), plus 50% to win the last, equals 25%. But....analyzing more closely, the odds are better if you can choose what game to cheat in. Basically I'm saying that the Peckers, with this officiating, have about a 40% chance to win the Super Bowl. And that's BEFORE the 2 games they won. NOT a difficult accomplishment or anything to be really proud of. But I'm not sure of that 40% figure; I just threw that out there. Something like that. What do you think?
Turn the officiating around for one game and here's what happens. 50/50 for 3 games is 1/8 or 12.5%. But if the refs screw you at random, it's like needing to win an extra game, which makes the odds 1/16, or 6.25% to win it all. BUT....if the refs screw you at the worst most inopportune time, that makes it even harder. Like how much lower would that make the odds?
Can you catch my drift. Officiating can't be underestimated.
Turn the officiating around for one game and here's what happens. 50/50 for 3 games is 1/8 or 12.5%. But if the refs screw you at random, it's like needing to win an extra game, which makes the odds 1/16, or 6.25% to win it all. BUT....if the refs screw you at the worst most inopportune time, that makes it even harder. Like how much lower would that make the odds?
Can you catch my drift. Officiating can't be underestimated.
