Here are some quick thoughts on each of our opponents.
TCU: An interesting stat I heard is that in the recent past no team +16 in turnover margin or better followed that up with an equally good season (wins) the next year. TCU was +21 last year. All three of their TD drives against us started within our 40 yard line. It would be a minor miracle if TCU came close to replicating last year's defensive performance considering they'll have 6 new starters and new co-coordinators. Not that they'll become pushovers, just no where near as dominate as they were. Offensively they have almost everyone back. The only sticking point is an undisclosed injury to Josh Doctson and a knee injury to Deante' Gray. My guess is Doctson plays and Gray sits since he has yet to practice. Whatever the case may be, TCU will aim to light up the scoreboard to build their CFP resume.
@CSU: After watching a portion of their spring game on youtube I'm less afraid of CSU. They're not big and they don't appear to be particularly fast. Like TCU their all-American wide receiver Rashard Higgins is battling injuries in camp. Gone is Garrett Grayson and his 4006 passing yards in is Nick Stevens last year's backup. They gave up an average of 200 yards/game on the ground. Of course, the dreaded altitude will be brought up, but at 5000 feet I don't think the effects will be noticeable on our endurance. Less atmospheric pressure may enhance our speed even.
Kent St: They really struggled on offense, especially on the road. They return their QB Reardon, but he tossed more INTs than TDs. They were the worst rushing team in FBS and can't stop the run either. Their two games against P5 teams were compete blowouts. This shouldn't even be close, but we'll know more once the season starts. I figure we'll get a couple picks off of Reardon and run it down their throats all day.
Ohio: They are a triple option squad who averaged 164 yards rushing a game last year good for 61st in the nation. Just for comparison we were 30th. They return their QB and leading rusher so that will help. They are pretty good on defense so they won't be a pushover. First one to 17 probably wins.
@Northwestern: I like us in this one. The Cats need to replace many important starters on both sides of the ball as well as put some internal turmoil behind them. They will more than likely start a freshman QB. For them that is not an ideal situation. They have a good secondary and Justin Jackson is a stud. Both lines are suspect and they have to replace leading tackler LB Chi Chi Ariguzo. They beat Wisconsin at home by getting 4 turnovers. That has been the big difference over the past couple of years for us. We were the ones getting the turnovers and big special teams plays. Those are the things they thrive off of and no doubt will decide this game as well.
@Purdue: The two guys who hurt us the most last year, Hunt and Mostert, are gone. They are toying with starting a freshman at QB. They have to run a gauntlet that includes Marshall, VaTech and Michigan St before our game. West Lafayette has not been kind to us. This game feels like last year's Illinois game. I hate to say that but it might be a case where we come out flat and can't overcome an early deficit.
Nebraska: They get Wisconsin the week before and they might be a little beat up with BYU and Miami(FL) on the schedule too. They lose a lot of playmakers from last year and have new coaches. My sense is it won't be a seamless transition. This is a team I think we beat as long as we don't take a step back on defense or in the run game.
Michigan: Both teams have a bye leading up to this game. Jake Rudock looks to be the starter. I was more optimistic about our chances until I heard their OL is putting it together. Still, we seem to have some special mojo on Halloween at TCF. Rudock didn't exactly light up our secondary last year behind an OL featuring NFL draft picks at tackle. They lost promising NT Bryan Mone to injury. There aren't a lot of playmakers on offense. The strength of their defense like us is the secondary. The fact that it's at home and the talent gap between us and them is smaller than at any time in my lifetime I see us retaining the LBJ.
@Ohio St: Unless something drastic happens our chances are slim to none. The buckeyes are way too talented. Like TCU they will move heaven and Earth to try to blow us out to impress the CFP committee.
@Iowa: We have all of one win at Kinnick in the last 25 years, but this year is our best chance since our last in '99. The hawkeyes are starting over on offense. CJ Beathard is a gun slinger who I'm guessing they hope can run around and make plays. First-round nfl draft pick Brandon Scherff will be replaced by a sophomore walk-on. Yikes! The defense should be solid. They will miss Carl Davis and Louis Trinca-Passat. If we are who we think we are I really believe we can win this game.
Illinois: They play Ohio St the week before, so I imagine Wes Lunt, if he's still alive, will be pretty tenderized. Their one road win was against a depleted Northwestern team with a bowl game on the line. They lost Mike Dudek to a torn ACL. Reilly O'Toole who rallied the team to their big ten wins is gone as well. Beckman probably isn't as bad a coach as people make him out to be, but circumstances played a big part in them making a bowl. They won 3 toss up games (MN, PSU, NW ) where they were +6 in turnover margin. That is the definition of luck.
Wisconsin: There are holes to fill on the OL and outside of Corey Clement there aren't many weapons on offense. There is a school of thought that Stave will blossom under Chryst. That might be true, but unless there are a bunch of stud receivers I don't know how far he can carry them. If there were another back in Madison like a James White to complement Clement I would be more cautious. They have beat us the last two years with a smothering defense and hitting home runs on offense. A lot of those guys on defense are gone and they don't have anyone else like Melvin Gordon. One thing in their favor is the schedule. In the six weeks following their trip to Lincoln, their biggest challenge will probably be what games to watch during their bye week. It isn't given that we'll win but neither is losing.
In conclusion, as long as we stay relatively healthy and our defense and running game remain equal or better, I think we have a chance in every game except Ohio St. There are lots of nice reports trickling out of camp about our receivers so maybe we get that extra oomph we need to get over the hump. We're 11-3 at home over the past couple years and 5-5 on the road. We're 8-2 in games decided by a TD or less. We lost some starters, but we have backfilled most of those spots with guys who have starting experience. We seemed to have upgraded talent at receiver and are deeper at DL and LB. Our secondary is the best in the West. We are awesome on special teams. We block at least one punt and return a kick for a TD. Mitch will better. Maybe not enough to silence his critics but enough to keep winning. We're the most stable team in the West right now and that has to count for something. Who would have thought we'd be saying that even a year ago?
TCU: An interesting stat I heard is that in the recent past no team +16 in turnover margin or better followed that up with an equally good season (wins) the next year. TCU was +21 last year. All three of their TD drives against us started within our 40 yard line. It would be a minor miracle if TCU came close to replicating last year's defensive performance considering they'll have 6 new starters and new co-coordinators. Not that they'll become pushovers, just no where near as dominate as they were. Offensively they have almost everyone back. The only sticking point is an undisclosed injury to Josh Doctson and a knee injury to Deante' Gray. My guess is Doctson plays and Gray sits since he has yet to practice. Whatever the case may be, TCU will aim to light up the scoreboard to build their CFP resume.
@CSU: After watching a portion of their spring game on youtube I'm less afraid of CSU. They're not big and they don't appear to be particularly fast. Like TCU their all-American wide receiver Rashard Higgins is battling injuries in camp. Gone is Garrett Grayson and his 4006 passing yards in is Nick Stevens last year's backup. They gave up an average of 200 yards/game on the ground. Of course, the dreaded altitude will be brought up, but at 5000 feet I don't think the effects will be noticeable on our endurance. Less atmospheric pressure may enhance our speed even.
Kent St: They really struggled on offense, especially on the road. They return their QB Reardon, but he tossed more INTs than TDs. They were the worst rushing team in FBS and can't stop the run either. Their two games against P5 teams were compete blowouts. This shouldn't even be close, but we'll know more once the season starts. I figure we'll get a couple picks off of Reardon and run it down their throats all day.
Ohio: They are a triple option squad who averaged 164 yards rushing a game last year good for 61st in the nation. Just for comparison we were 30th. They return their QB and leading rusher so that will help. They are pretty good on defense so they won't be a pushover. First one to 17 probably wins.
@Northwestern: I like us in this one. The Cats need to replace many important starters on both sides of the ball as well as put some internal turmoil behind them. They will more than likely start a freshman QB. For them that is not an ideal situation. They have a good secondary and Justin Jackson is a stud. Both lines are suspect and they have to replace leading tackler LB Chi Chi Ariguzo. They beat Wisconsin at home by getting 4 turnovers. That has been the big difference over the past couple of years for us. We were the ones getting the turnovers and big special teams plays. Those are the things they thrive off of and no doubt will decide this game as well.
@Purdue: The two guys who hurt us the most last year, Hunt and Mostert, are gone. They are toying with starting a freshman at QB. They have to run a gauntlet that includes Marshall, VaTech and Michigan St before our game. West Lafayette has not been kind to us. This game feels like last year's Illinois game. I hate to say that but it might be a case where we come out flat and can't overcome an early deficit.
Nebraska: They get Wisconsin the week before and they might be a little beat up with BYU and Miami(FL) on the schedule too. They lose a lot of playmakers from last year and have new coaches. My sense is it won't be a seamless transition. This is a team I think we beat as long as we don't take a step back on defense or in the run game.
Michigan: Both teams have a bye leading up to this game. Jake Rudock looks to be the starter. I was more optimistic about our chances until I heard their OL is putting it together. Still, we seem to have some special mojo on Halloween at TCF. Rudock didn't exactly light up our secondary last year behind an OL featuring NFL draft picks at tackle. They lost promising NT Bryan Mone to injury. There aren't a lot of playmakers on offense. The strength of their defense like us is the secondary. The fact that it's at home and the talent gap between us and them is smaller than at any time in my lifetime I see us retaining the LBJ.
@Ohio St: Unless something drastic happens our chances are slim to none. The buckeyes are way too talented. Like TCU they will move heaven and Earth to try to blow us out to impress the CFP committee.
@Iowa: We have all of one win at Kinnick in the last 25 years, but this year is our best chance since our last in '99. The hawkeyes are starting over on offense. CJ Beathard is a gun slinger who I'm guessing they hope can run around and make plays. First-round nfl draft pick Brandon Scherff will be replaced by a sophomore walk-on. Yikes! The defense should be solid. They will miss Carl Davis and Louis Trinca-Passat. If we are who we think we are I really believe we can win this game.
Illinois: They play Ohio St the week before, so I imagine Wes Lunt, if he's still alive, will be pretty tenderized. Their one road win was against a depleted Northwestern team with a bowl game on the line. They lost Mike Dudek to a torn ACL. Reilly O'Toole who rallied the team to their big ten wins is gone as well. Beckman probably isn't as bad a coach as people make him out to be, but circumstances played a big part in them making a bowl. They won 3 toss up games (MN, PSU, NW ) where they were +6 in turnover margin. That is the definition of luck.
Wisconsin: There are holes to fill on the OL and outside of Corey Clement there aren't many weapons on offense. There is a school of thought that Stave will blossom under Chryst. That might be true, but unless there are a bunch of stud receivers I don't know how far he can carry them. If there were another back in Madison like a James White to complement Clement I would be more cautious. They have beat us the last two years with a smothering defense and hitting home runs on offense. A lot of those guys on defense are gone and they don't have anyone else like Melvin Gordon. One thing in their favor is the schedule. In the six weeks following their trip to Lincoln, their biggest challenge will probably be what games to watch during their bye week. It isn't given that we'll win but neither is losing.
In conclusion, as long as we stay relatively healthy and our defense and running game remain equal or better, I think we have a chance in every game except Ohio St. There are lots of nice reports trickling out of camp about our receivers so maybe we get that extra oomph we need to get over the hump. We're 11-3 at home over the past couple years and 5-5 on the road. We're 8-2 in games decided by a TD or less. We lost some starters, but we have backfilled most of those spots with guys who have starting experience. We seemed to have upgraded talent at receiver and are deeper at DL and LB. Our secondary is the best in the West. We are awesome on special teams. We block at least one punt and return a kick for a TD. Mitch will better. Maybe not enough to silence his critics but enough to keep winning. We're the most stable team in the West right now and that has to count for something. Who would have thought we'd be saying that even a year ago?
