I am going to put up two threads on this topic. This thread will provide a backdrop of how I calculate the offers and rank the teams in the Big 10 for those new to the site and/or a refresher for those that have seen this before. I will answer any questions in this thread as well, now that I'm starting to do the tentative calculations and have worked through the West division so far pending last minute changes. Here's how I do it:
Purpose: Is to provide a separate metric beyond the 247, Rivals, and ESPN composites which is based only on value of offers received by the recruit and then categorizes the recruits into tiers for my team value calculations. I started doing this several years ago after seeing numerous and significant discrepancies between some players ratings as compared to offers which didn't make sense to me. Some teams seemed to be getting too much credit for camp warriors that coaches weren't offering, and some teams too little credit for highly sought out players that were not rated high. I don't see as much major discrepancies as I used to, but you will still see some significant differences in the results. One example and positive teaser is that Wisconsin and especially Iowa appear to be overrated as compared to offers.
The annual disclaimer on the limitations: I have to rely on the general accuracy of the reported offers on the recruiting sites. There will always be some issues with over-reported offers that may not be commitable or valid, or under-reported offers simply because a recruit doesn't announce later offers. However, for the most part those issues apply equally to all teams and so I hope errors are softened by the fact that every team experiences those variances.
How it's done: I tabulate recruits into 6 levels based upon the number of helmet school offers and P5 (or equivalent) offers and provide weighted values.
High 4*(6.0) recruit= 10+ helmet school offers; Mid 4* (5.9)recruit = 4-9 helmet school offers; Low 4* (5.8) recruit = 2+ helmet school offers and 6+ P5 offers or 12+ P5 offers; (I would also categorize a handful of players that get 15+ helmet school offers as 5*'s but since there are so few in Big 10 I simply give same value as high 4*s).
HIgh 3* (5.7) recruit= 6-11 P5 offers; Mid 3* (5.6) recruit = 4-5 P5 offers; Low 3* (5.5) recruit = 1-3 P5 offers or 5+ FBS offers.
Couple exceptions: To account for under-reported offers for early in state commits, I will bump up an early home state commit one level if necessary (for under-reported offers) if the recruit also lands in top half of state rankings (for Minnesota, Wisconsin states I consider top 5, for states like Illinois, top 10, states like Ohio top 20. I also bump a level for a juco recruit (if under-reported offers) as they tend to not receive as many offers for various reasons. These adjustments soften the blow for some categories of under-reported offers.
How team rankings are calculated:
After determining the helmet school and P5 equivalent offers, I give 5 points for a high 4* down each level to 1 point for a mid 3*. I figure any recruits that also have at least 4 other P5 offers should be counters in the system. Then I subjectively group and tier the teams in to 4 tiers as I'm a big believer in fact that there simply isn't that much difference in many of these classes despite fact that you have to rank the conference from 1-14. In other words, there may only be a subtle difference between the 5th ranked team and the 8th ranked team and that should be noted. It drives me crazy even with the site rankings that most readers outside these sites don't understand that fact.
I hope to roll out the offer rating results either Tuesday night or Wednesday morning with any minor edits being adjusted as any surprise changes come in for the Big 10 teams.
Purpose: Is to provide a separate metric beyond the 247, Rivals, and ESPN composites which is based only on value of offers received by the recruit and then categorizes the recruits into tiers for my team value calculations. I started doing this several years ago after seeing numerous and significant discrepancies between some players ratings as compared to offers which didn't make sense to me. Some teams seemed to be getting too much credit for camp warriors that coaches weren't offering, and some teams too little credit for highly sought out players that were not rated high. I don't see as much major discrepancies as I used to, but you will still see some significant differences in the results. One example and positive teaser is that Wisconsin and especially Iowa appear to be overrated as compared to offers.
The annual disclaimer on the limitations: I have to rely on the general accuracy of the reported offers on the recruiting sites. There will always be some issues with over-reported offers that may not be commitable or valid, or under-reported offers simply because a recruit doesn't announce later offers. However, for the most part those issues apply equally to all teams and so I hope errors are softened by the fact that every team experiences those variances.
How it's done: I tabulate recruits into 6 levels based upon the number of helmet school offers and P5 (or equivalent) offers and provide weighted values.
High 4*(6.0) recruit= 10+ helmet school offers; Mid 4* (5.9)recruit = 4-9 helmet school offers; Low 4* (5.8) recruit = 2+ helmet school offers and 6+ P5 offers or 12+ P5 offers; (I would also categorize a handful of players that get 15+ helmet school offers as 5*'s but since there are so few in Big 10 I simply give same value as high 4*s).
HIgh 3* (5.7) recruit= 6-11 P5 offers; Mid 3* (5.6) recruit = 4-5 P5 offers; Low 3* (5.5) recruit = 1-3 P5 offers or 5+ FBS offers.
Couple exceptions: To account for under-reported offers for early in state commits, I will bump up an early home state commit one level if necessary (for under-reported offers) if the recruit also lands in top half of state rankings (for Minnesota, Wisconsin states I consider top 5, for states like Illinois, top 10, states like Ohio top 20. I also bump a level for a juco recruit (if under-reported offers) as they tend to not receive as many offers for various reasons. These adjustments soften the blow for some categories of under-reported offers.
How team rankings are calculated:
After determining the helmet school and P5 equivalent offers, I give 5 points for a high 4* down each level to 1 point for a mid 3*. I figure any recruits that also have at least 4 other P5 offers should be counters in the system. Then I subjectively group and tier the teams in to 4 tiers as I'm a big believer in fact that there simply isn't that much difference in many of these classes despite fact that you have to rank the conference from 1-14. In other words, there may only be a subtle difference between the 5th ranked team and the 8th ranked team and that should be noted. It drives me crazy even with the site rankings that most readers outside these sites don't understand that fact.
I hope to roll out the offer rating results either Tuesday night or Wednesday morning with any minor edits being adjusted as any surprise changes come in for the Big 10 teams.
