MONDAY UPDATE
It's my understanding that the football staff does not know if they'll be back next year. I do know that there's been contact with Western Michigan's PJ Fleck. Two months ago I first got word that PJ Fleck had "very strong" interest in Minnesota, and this was confirmed by multiple people. I'm not sure when Minnesota was first in contact with Fleck (I imagine a couple weeks now), but I heard today that Minnesota and Fleck had talked shortly before the Cotton Bowl. Now, I don't mean to say that Fleck will for sure be the next coach. I have not yet hard that he's been commital, just that he's reciprocated interest.
Coyle said tomorrow he'll meet with Claeys about the season. I'm not sure if that meeting is actually set (it may be, but I haven't been able to confirm that). Claeys on the radio sounded as if the meeting wasn't a for sure thing.
It's also pretty clear that Minnesota is not interested in firing Tracy Claeys solely for the sake of firing Claeys. If they were set on moving on from him, a move would have been made in the day or two after the Holiday Bowl.
PJ Fleck is the only target I know about. I do not know if Coyle has contacted other coaches or not, but right now he seems to be the top target. I also don't know if it's Fleck or bust, Fleck or Coach X or Coach Y or bust. As I said above, Coyle does not appear to be hellbent on firing Claeys and I think would only do so if he has his guy in place.
With the Cotton Bowl having taken place today, I would think we'll hear news by tomorrow afternoon, and if not by then, for sure by Wednesday.
TUESDAY EARLY EVENING UPDATE: CLAEYS FIRED
Like I said earlier, I've been told that PJ Fleck has strong interest in Minnesota. Given everything I've learned about the situation, I certainly expect him to be the top target.
Here are some other names. Some are significantly more likely/unlikely than others for various reasons that I'll break down in a hotboard soon, but I'm leaning on the side of inclusive right now: Troy Calhoun - Air Force HC, Les Miles - Former LSU HC, Craig Bohl - Wyoming HC, Bryan Harsin - Boise State HC, Greg Schiano - Ohio State DC, Philip Montgomery - Tulsa HC, Dave Clawson - Wake Forest HC, Scott Frost - UCF HC, Bo Pelini - Youngstown State HC, Ken Niumatalolo - Navy HC, Chris Klieman - North Dakota State HC, Scott Satterfield - Appapachian State HC, Lincoln Riley - Oklahoma OC, Bobby Wilder - Old Dominion HC, Skip Holtz - Louisiana Tech HC, Dave Aranda - LSU DC, Joe Moorhead - Penn State OC
TUESDAY NIGHT UPDATE
I had a conversation tonight that reiterated that PJ Fleck wants the Minnesota job bad, and that it will be "a layup" for Minnesota if he's Coyle's guy.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE
Again, every conversation I've had leads me to believe that Fleck has strong interest in Minnesota, and the Gophers have strong interest in him. I believe he's the top target and will most likely be the guy.
Could Kill's words deter Fleck? It's definitely possible. Remember, Fleck was an assistant under Kill. I was told by one person that Kill was one of several who recommended Fleck to Western Michigan. Fleck sent Kill an oar in 2013 after a seizure episode. I don't think the two necessarily talk frequently, but I believe Fleck has quite a bit of respect for Kill. On the flip side, regardless of the respect Fleck has for Kill, the conversations I've had suggest that his ambition and personality would make him likely to still make the jump to Minnesota. Someone I spoke with and trust is adamant that Fleck is looking to leave Western Michigan this season and that he's determined Minnesota to be a very good fit (independent from Kill's words).
Lastly, I've messaged a few Western Michigan recruits and while of course they all say they expect Fleck to be back next season, they haven't been told for sure that he will be. Also, worth noting just for amusement: their language kind of mirrors Fleck's, which I found kind of funny.
Other notes:
- Troy Calhoun has had a lot of success at Air Force but always seemed content staying there. I'm told he wants out of Air Force bad now, and that's why I included him on my initial list of other names to know about. I know that he interviewed at Purdue.
- Craig Bohl I'm told is very loyal to Wyoming. That doesn't necessarily mean that Minnesota couldn't flip him, but I don't think it would be the guarantee that everyone thinks.
WEDNESDAY EVENING UPDATE
Spoke with a friend who's a writer for the
Boise State Rivals site, Mike Wittmann, about Harsin:
"I haven't heard anything. Only thing I've seen is same as you, that his name should be on the list. Don't know if you've seen anything about Harsin not being Coyle's first choice for Boise three years ago. I'll keep an eye out, but don't see that happening."
A lot of his information came from Stubbs Zanelli from Rivals who did a lot of research on Harsin back in September. He talked to people from Texas and Arkansas State from his previous stints for his previous research when Harsin was hired there.
He tweeted this yesterday:
Login to view embedded media
Everything we know still leads us to believe that Fleck is the clear frontrunner but we'll continue to do our research on other potential candidates.
WEDNESDAY HOT BOARD
Link:
Coaching Search Hotboard
Nothing in this hotboard is new, but it provides some information on a handful of candidates.
THURSDAY MORNING UPDATE
I wouldn't really read much into the Moorhead turning down the offer news right now. I'm sure Minnesota is reaching out to others in case something falls last minute, and I'm sure some coaches are also having their agents release things to get raises. Minnesota also has incentive to get other candidate names out there for more leverage when negotiating. Again, everything I've heard indicates that Fleck really wants the job, and that he's likely the top target for Minnesota. Kaler and Coyle flying down and meeting with him the day after they fired Claeys supports that.
I'd expect news this afternoon or evening.
If there's not news by this evening, I'd be a little concerned that Fleck either turned something down because of Kill's words, BOR didn't want it (unlikely from what I've heard), or something unforeseen. Again, I haven't been given any indication it won't be Fleck, though. I don't mean to cause panic and don't believe there should be any panic right now -- just writing this because today is very likely the day.
Thursday morning update Pt. 2
The Regents have been told that the search is over and two candidates that Minnesota has reached out to want the job. One of them I imagine to be Fleck, and given what we know, I would be pretty surprised if he's not the one with an offer.
I would not expect any last-minute interference from the Regents. Coyle spent a lot of time getting them on board with the decision to get rid of Claeys and what was next.
Also, there's this tweet from Dan Barreiro:
Login to view embedded media
THURSDAY EVENING UPDATE
It's been quiet for most of the day, as I believe negotiations were going on with Minnesota and Fleck/his party in Chicago.
What I'm hearing right now is that the ball is in Minnesota's court. That news came from someone I trust but ultimately I can't confirm its truth. However, everything they've told me leading up to this aligns with what I've heard. This is obviously a unique time with the boycott, sexual assault case, etc. Kaler and Coyle want to make sure the transition goes as smooth as possible. From what I'm told they're doing background checks and looking into how Fleck has handled similar situations. An announcement may not come until tomorrow even if there are no red flags.
Also, over the past couple hours there's been Les Miles steam:
Login to view embedded media
Login to view embedded media
I can confirm that there's interest in Miles, and have been given reason to believe that he may even be a top two candidate. I can't confirm that he actually came here.
6:50 PM Update:
Another text saying it will be Fleck.
Barring something last minute, PJ's the guy.
---
More links:
My thoughts on the status of every commit //
Commits react to Claeys being fired //
Coyle presser summary //
Coyle presser video //
Recap: Glen Mason discusses Claeys firing //
Recap: Regent chair Dean Johnson talks firing //
Recap: Jerry Kill talks Claeys and administration on AM 1500