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BTN Fact or Fiction: Minnesota Should be a Favorite to Win Big Ten for Basketball Next Year

E.J. Stevens

Well-Known Member
Jul 11, 2016
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Minnesota loses only Akeem Springs from their rotation. They will add Isaiah Washington, Jamir Harris, and injured forward Davonte Fitzgerald. These three will certainly contribute and add to a strong starting group of Nate Mason, Dupree McBrayer, Amir Coffey, Jordan Murphy, and Reggie Lynch. Eric Curry and Michael Hurt will play and Bakary Konate will play a bit as well off the bench, so that gives you 11 guys right there who can play. Lets also look at the improvements that last years' top three returners made:

2015-2016:

Nate Mason: 13.8 ppg, 2.8 reb, 4.8 assts. He shot 38% from the field and 30% from three. 0.9 steals and 1.7 turnovers per game.

Dupree McBrayer: 5.9 ppg, 2.3 reb, 2.5 assts. He shot 32% from the field, 62% FT, 29% from three. One steal and one turnover per game.

Jordan Murphy: 11.6 ppg, 8.0 reb, 1.0 steals and 1.0 blks. He shot 46%, 61% free throws, 22% three point %. (All-Freshman Team)

2016-2017:

Nate Mason: 15.2 ppg, 3.6 reb, 5.0 assts, 1.4 steals, 1.9 turnovers. He shot 37%, 81% FT, 36% from three and was 1st Team All-Big Ten.
-Nate increased his ppg by 1.4, rebounds by 0.8, and 0.2 assists. His shooting percentage overall decreased but his FT % increased by 1% and his 3P% improved by 6%. He was top ten in the Big Ten in scoring and 2nd in the conference in assists per game.

Improvements Needed: Nate stepped up big time this season and at times carried the team to victory with his stellar play on both ends. The biggest knock on Nate, however, is his shot selection and efficiency. There were too many games where he shot 2/10 or 3/14 from the field but he would still get his 15 points because of his ability to convert at the line. 37% is too low for a starting point guard to shoot. If he can get that percentage up between 42-45% next year, watch out.

Dupree McBrayer: 11.1 ppg, 2.0 reb, 2.8 assts, 0.8 steals, 1.5 turnovers. He shot 45% from the field, 74% from the line and 41% from three.
-Dupree made the biggest jump of any of the three returning players from the eight-win team two years ago. His points per game went up by 5.2, his assists by 0.2, his shooting percentage by 13%, FT% by 12%, and his 3P% by 12%. He was generally a very efficient player this past year that could score in a variety of ways on all three levels after essentially just being effective as a slasher in his freshman year.

Improvements Needed: If he continues to improve this summer he could be in for a huge junior year. He needs to add 10-15 more pounds of muscle in order to avoid being bullied when he is on the defensive end. His offensive game improved big time last year and with another offseason under his belt he could "explode" as a junior, says Richard Pitino.

Jordan Murphy: 11.3 ppg, 8.8 reb, 0.9 assts, 0.7 steals, 1.1 blocks per game. He shot 50%, 60% FT's, 12% from three. Jordan was named 3rd Team All-Big Ten.
-Besides improving his rebounding by 0.8 per game and his blocks by 0.1, on paper, Jordan didn't take as big of a jump as Nate or Dupree did. He struggled to find his identity at times last year before really turning it on during Minnesota's eight-game winning streak. During that stretch he averaged 17 points and 13 rebounds per game.

Improvements Needed: Jordan's biggest improvements for the offseason can come on defense and avoiding foul trouble while also continuing to work on his post moves and shooting. If he can develop a respectable jump shot and a couple go-to moves around the hoop he will be an even bigger force to be reckoned with.

Last Year's New Comers:

Amir Coffey: 12.2 ppg, 3.8 reb, 3.1 assts, and 1.1 steals and 1.9 turnovers. He shot 45% overall, 75% FT's, and 34% from three. He was an All-Big Ten Freshmen Team Selection.
-This is a very impressive stat line for a freshman. TGR predicted he would score between 9-11 points per game while grabbing three boards and dishing out two assists. He eclipsed all those marks while shooting better than expected from the field and much better from three than expected.

Improvements Needed: Amir has incredible potential. The 6'8" guard will have a full off-season to add more weight to his long and athletic frame and to refine his game. He was able to score at all three levels this year effectively, but at times struggled shooting off the dribble. We expect him to add a few moves to his arsenal and be able to score much more off one on one and creating for himself. He could average 14-15 points per game next year and take over as the alpha dog for Minnesota.

Reggie Lynch: 8.4 points, 6.1 reb, 3.5 blocks, 3.4 fouls. He shot 54% overall, 63% FT's. He was named the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year.
-Reggie changed everything for the Minnesota defense last year. His rim protection allowed the Gopher perimeter players to take more chances and get up to contest all shots because they knew he had their back at the rim. His foul trouble was a big issue throughout the season and when he was out the Minnesota defense took a significant step back.

Improvements Needed: Staying on the court is just the biggest one for him, obviously. The second leading shot blocker in the country played just 23 minutes per game. If he could stay on the court 27-29 minutes per game next year, the Gophers defense will only improve. They were in the top five in the Big Ten in opponent field goal % and lead the league in opponent 3FG%. Reggie can also continue to refine his offensive game and work on slowing down in the post. He often got overwhelmed if he was double-teamed and tried to dribble out of it. Another off-season of work and film review should definitely help him here.

Eric Curry: 5.5 ppg, 5.2 reb, 1.2 assts, 0.7 blocks. He shot 43%, 70% FT's, and 17% from three.
-Eric was very impressive for the most part last season, especially for a freshman. His toughness, versatility, and rebounding ability were much needed. He also had a knack for knocking down big shots late in games. He was often the second guy in off the bench and played half the game at 20 minutes per night.

Improvements Needed: Although he had a few big games, his consistency is something he can certainly improve on. After scoring 12 points against Michigan in February, he went six straight games scoring four or less points. His rebounding was usually consistent, but he had some issues navigating the pick and roll on defense. He has a beautiful shooting stroke, but it looked like the game moved too fast at times and that is why he only shot 17% from three. With an off-season to watch film and get shots up in the gym, TGR thinks he could score 7-9 points per game while grabbing 6-7 rebounds and shooting around 30% from three. That would be a nice jump.

Michael Hurt: 0.7 ppg, 0.5 reb, 0.2 assists in 5.8 minutes per game. He shot 30% overall and 14.3% from three.
-The game was a bit too fast for the 6'7" freshman wing last year. His foot speed and lateral ability wasn't up to par with most Big Ten wings and that created some difficulties for him on the defensive end. He is a good shooter and hit a big three in a road win over Northwestern, but he really didn't get a lot of opportunities overall last year.

Improvements Needed: Michael is an extremely hard worker by all accounts and has the size and shooting ability to make a bigger impact next year. He should be able to add a few pounds to his frame while improving his quickness and just living in the gym to be able to become a more reliable spot up shooter. TGR thinks he will be able to work his way into the rotation next year.

Conclusion:

This team will have much more depth than the team that was essentially down to a six man rotation with a banged up Nate Mason in the NCAA Tournament loss to Middle Tennessee. The Gophers finished fourth in the Big Ten a year ago and it would be disappointing for them to finish any lower than that next year, especially if they are healthy. It's arguable that they could have the most returning talent of anyone in the entire conference. Fun times are ahead!

What're your thoughts?

Non-Conference Games Scheduled:
-Road game at Arkansas (Return of Home and Home)
-Home Game against a likely top 5 ACC team from this year's standings.
ACC top Five:
1. UNC (Visited Indiana)
2. Florida State (Hosted Minnesota)
3. Notre Dame (Hosted Iowa)
4. Louisville (Hosted Purdue)
5. Duke (Hosted Michigan State)
With UNC playing a road game last year and Florida State and Minnesota playing for the third time in five years in the challenge (Minnesota is 2-1), Minnesota will likely host Notre Dame, Louisville, or Duke.
 
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