Just thought those here would like to see an impartial gamblers look at the Gophers. He had Gophers as a 1 star pick last week at Purdue. (One of his few wins on the week actually.) FWIW he likes the under and kind of likes the Gophers tomorrow. that line opened at +2 Gophers and moved pretty fast to -2 gophers. Anyway, he likes our defense a lot.
UNDER (49) – MINNESOTA (-2) 24 Nebraska 16
Sat Oct-17-2015 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 164 Over/Under 49.0 - Matchup Stats
Minnesota hasn’t gotten much buzz this season because they’ve won ugly aside from last week’s 41-13 win at Purdue, but the Gophers are really, really good defensively. Minnesota has allowed only 4.3 yards per play and 19.0 points per game to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl and 26.0 points per game against an average defensive team. That includes holding TCU to 5.2 yppl and 23 points, which is very impressive given that the Horned Frogs have scored 50 points or more in each of their other 5 games. Nebraska has a better than average offense (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) but Minnesota’s stop unit has a 1.1 yppl advantage over that attack and my model projects just 301 yards at 4.4 yppl for the Cornhuskers in this game. Nebraska faced 4 mediocre or worse defensive teams to start the season but they’ve been held to an average of just 17 points the last two weeks by better than average defensive teams Illinois and Wisconsin and Minnesota’s defense is considerably better.
Helping our under cause is a Minnesota offense that has averaged only 19.7 points per game and 4.9 yppl despite facing teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl and 26.1 points to an average team. The Gophers are actually 0.3 yppl better than their season rating with Shannon Brooks adding some pop to the rushing attack since he started getting consistent carries 3 weeks ago. Nebraska’s defense would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team, which is the same as the average rating of the team’s that the Gophers have averaged only 20 points per game against and the Cornhuskers have given up an average of just 23.8 points per game, so they’ve performed better than their slightly worse than average yardage stats. My model calls for 344 yards per play for the Gophers after adjusting their improved rushing attack and that projects to 24 points when all the other factors are included.
The math likes Minnesota here but it likes the under even more (the Nebraska team total under 25 ½ points is really the best play) and I’ll go UNDER 49 points or higher in a 2-Star Best Bet and for 1-Star down to 48 points (Strong Opinion down to 47) and I’ll consider Minnesota a Strong Opinion at -2 ½ points or less.
UNDER (49) – MINNESOTA (-2) 24 Nebraska 16
Sat Oct-17-2015 at 12:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 164 Over/Under 49.0 - Matchup Stats
Minnesota hasn’t gotten much buzz this season because they’ve won ugly aside from last week’s 41-13 win at Purdue, but the Gophers are really, really good defensively. Minnesota has allowed only 4.3 yards per play and 19.0 points per game to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl and 26.0 points per game against an average defensive team. That includes holding TCU to 5.2 yppl and 23 points, which is very impressive given that the Horned Frogs have scored 50 points or more in each of their other 5 games. Nebraska has a better than average offense (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team) but Minnesota’s stop unit has a 1.1 yppl advantage over that attack and my model projects just 301 yards at 4.4 yppl for the Cornhuskers in this game. Nebraska faced 4 mediocre or worse defensive teams to start the season but they’ve been held to an average of just 17 points the last two weeks by better than average defensive teams Illinois and Wisconsin and Minnesota’s defense is considerably better.
Helping our under cause is a Minnesota offense that has averaged only 19.7 points per game and 4.9 yppl despite facing teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl and 26.1 points to an average team. The Gophers are actually 0.3 yppl better than their season rating with Shannon Brooks adding some pop to the rushing attack since he started getting consistent carries 3 weeks ago. Nebraska’s defense would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team, which is the same as the average rating of the team’s that the Gophers have averaged only 20 points per game against and the Cornhuskers have given up an average of just 23.8 points per game, so they’ve performed better than their slightly worse than average yardage stats. My model calls for 344 yards per play for the Gophers after adjusting their improved rushing attack and that projects to 24 points when all the other factors are included.
The math likes Minnesota here but it likes the under even more (the Nebraska team total under 25 ½ points is really the best play) and I’ll go UNDER 49 points or higher in a 2-Star Best Bet and for 1-Star down to 48 points (Strong Opinion down to 47) and I’ll consider Minnesota a Strong Opinion at -2 ½ points or less.
