Our #16 Gopher wrestlers are at #12 IL for our last B1G match of the season and this one could be very close!! On paper (see predictions below), we should lose by a couple team points. But more than any other dual meet match thus far, this match is winnable if everyone wrestles to expectations...and just a couple Gophers wrestle better than expected.
With the momentum we have from winning some close duals lately, we might just be up to getting an upset win tonight. The match is on at 7pm tonight on BTN@GO, so tune in if you can...this could be a good one!!
Here are the probable line-ups...with my predictions after the IL lineups:
#16 MINNESOTA (9-7, 5-3)
125 -/-/- Steven Polakowski (11-6, 2-2)
133 -/-/- Sam Brancale (15-15, 0-6)
141 6/9/8 Tommy Thorn (28-7, 7-1)
149 16/14/13 Jake Short (11-7, 3-5)
157 -/-/- Brandon Kingsley (18-10, 5-3)
165 -/-/- Brad Dolezal (6-5, 0-3)
174 -/-/- Nick Wanzek (15-9, 5-3)
184 -/-/- Chris Pfarr (9-17, 0-7)
197 3/3/3 Brett Pfarr (29-2, 8-0)
HWT 9/10/8 Michael Kroells (25-6, 6-2)
Records (Overall, Big Ten)
Rankings are listed in Intermat, W.I.N., OpenMat
#12 ILLINOIS (12-5, 4-5)
125 -/-/- Francis Edelen (1-16, 0-8 ) Fr. (MN 3 - IL 0)
133 2/2/2 Zane Richards (20-0, 6-0), r-Jr. (MN 3 - IL 4)
141 -/-/- Mousa Jodeh (3-8, 0-4), Fr. (MN 7 - IL 4)
149 -/-/- Kyle Langenderfer (6-11, 2-6), r-So. (MN 11 - IL 4)
157 2/2/2 Isaiah Martinez (22-1, 7-1), r-So. (MN 11 - IL 9)
165 6/4/6 Steven Rodrigues (20-2, 6-2), r-Sr. (MN 11 - IL 13)
174 4/2/2 Zac Brunson (17-1, 4-1), r-Jr. (MN 11- IL 17)
184 -/15/18 Jeff Koepke (17-5, 5-3), r-Sr. (MN 11 - IL 22)
197 -/-/- Andre Lee (11-10, 1-7), r-Fr. (MN 16 - IL 22)
285 -/20/- Brooks Black (16-6, 4-4), r-So. (MN 20 - IL 22)
So, right now it looks like IL wins a close match 22-20. This is a conservative prediction as I gave IL a lot of bonus points. So, if we want to get a win here...this is what we need to do:
- 125 Polakowski/Petry need to get a major, TF or pin (+1 - 3 team points)
- 133 Brancale doesn't give up a major decision (+1) and doesn't get Tech Falled, or pinned (-1 to -2)
- 141 Tommy Thorn gets a TF or pin (+1 - +2)
- 149 Jake Short gets a TF or pin (+1 - +2)
- 157 BK loses only by dec. or major dec. (+1 - +2) and doesn't get pinned (-1)
- 165 Brad Dolezal doesn't get TF or pinned (-1 to -2)
- 174 Nick Wanzek only loses by dec. (+1) and doesn't get TF or pinned (-1 to -2)
- 184 Chris Pfarr doesn't get pinned (-1) or loses only by major dec. (+1)
- 197 Brett Pfarr gets a fall (+1)
- 285 MK gets a TF or pin (+1 - +2)
If just 2-3 guys can wrestle better than expectations, we would get 3 team points and then we would win 23-22!!. Of course, if we got an unexpected upset win in one match...that would be at least a 6 team point swing. Although anything is possible...this looks to be pretty unlikely. So we need just a few small (positive) changes in our expected individual results if we are to win.
Our best chances to get more team points are at:
- 125 (need a major, TF, or F)
- 141 (need a TF/F)
- 149 (need a TF, or F)
- 197 (need a Fall)
- Others possible, but less likely
VERY IMPORTANT!! Others need to hold the line (while losing) at 133,157,165,174,184 (LOTS of BIG TIME HOLDING to DO!!!) It will be difficult to gain any team points by losing by a lesser decision in these matches as we are sizeable underdogs in all of them.
So tonight, as usual, we will have big time drama in Champaign!
Are we up to the Challenge??
We shall see.
Go Gopher wrestlers, lets kick some IL ass!!!
With the momentum we have from winning some close duals lately, we might just be up to getting an upset win tonight. The match is on at 7pm tonight on BTN@GO, so tune in if you can...this could be a good one!!
Here are the probable line-ups...with my predictions after the IL lineups:
#16 MINNESOTA (9-7, 5-3)
125 -/-/- Steven Polakowski (11-6, 2-2)
133 -/-/- Sam Brancale (15-15, 0-6)
141 6/9/8 Tommy Thorn (28-7, 7-1)
149 16/14/13 Jake Short (11-7, 3-5)
157 -/-/- Brandon Kingsley (18-10, 5-3)
165 -/-/- Brad Dolezal (6-5, 0-3)
174 -/-/- Nick Wanzek (15-9, 5-3)
184 -/-/- Chris Pfarr (9-17, 0-7)
197 3/3/3 Brett Pfarr (29-2, 8-0)
HWT 9/10/8 Michael Kroells (25-6, 6-2)
Records (Overall, Big Ten)
Rankings are listed in Intermat, W.I.N., OpenMat
#12 ILLINOIS (12-5, 4-5)
125 -/-/- Francis Edelen (1-16, 0-8 ) Fr. (MN 3 - IL 0)
133 2/2/2 Zane Richards (20-0, 6-0), r-Jr. (MN 3 - IL 4)
141 -/-/- Mousa Jodeh (3-8, 0-4), Fr. (MN 7 - IL 4)
149 -/-/- Kyle Langenderfer (6-11, 2-6), r-So. (MN 11 - IL 4)
157 2/2/2 Isaiah Martinez (22-1, 7-1), r-So. (MN 11 - IL 9)
165 6/4/6 Steven Rodrigues (20-2, 6-2), r-Sr. (MN 11 - IL 13)
174 4/2/2 Zac Brunson (17-1, 4-1), r-Jr. (MN 11- IL 17)
184 -/15/18 Jeff Koepke (17-5, 5-3), r-Sr. (MN 11 - IL 22)
197 -/-/- Andre Lee (11-10, 1-7), r-Fr. (MN 16 - IL 22)
285 -/20/- Brooks Black (16-6, 4-4), r-So. (MN 20 - IL 22)
So, right now it looks like IL wins a close match 22-20. This is a conservative prediction as I gave IL a lot of bonus points. So, if we want to get a win here...this is what we need to do:
- 125 Polakowski/Petry need to get a major, TF or pin (+1 - 3 team points)
- 133 Brancale doesn't give up a major decision (+1) and doesn't get Tech Falled, or pinned (-1 to -2)
- 141 Tommy Thorn gets a TF or pin (+1 - +2)
- 149 Jake Short gets a TF or pin (+1 - +2)
- 157 BK loses only by dec. or major dec. (+1 - +2) and doesn't get pinned (-1)
- 165 Brad Dolezal doesn't get TF or pinned (-1 to -2)
- 174 Nick Wanzek only loses by dec. (+1) and doesn't get TF or pinned (-1 to -2)
- 184 Chris Pfarr doesn't get pinned (-1) or loses only by major dec. (+1)
- 197 Brett Pfarr gets a fall (+1)
- 285 MK gets a TF or pin (+1 - +2)
If just 2-3 guys can wrestle better than expectations, we would get 3 team points and then we would win 23-22!!. Of course, if we got an unexpected upset win in one match...that would be at least a 6 team point swing. Although anything is possible...this looks to be pretty unlikely. So we need just a few small (positive) changes in our expected individual results if we are to win.
Our best chances to get more team points are at:
- 125 (need a major, TF, or F)
- 141 (need a TF/F)
- 149 (need a TF, or F)
- 197 (need a Fall)
- Others possible, but less likely
VERY IMPORTANT!! Others need to hold the line (while losing) at 133,157,165,174,184 (LOTS of BIG TIME HOLDING to DO!!!) It will be difficult to gain any team points by losing by a lesser decision in these matches as we are sizeable underdogs in all of them.
So tonight, as usual, we will have big time drama in Champaign!
Are we up to the Challenge??
We shall see.
Go Gopher wrestlers, lets kick some IL ass!!!
