Only three weeks into the season, but have watched a lot of games so far and have tried to see each Big Ten team at least once. In my opinion and many others, Michigan State and Minnesota are the clear top two teams in the conference right now with Purdue trailing shortly behind the Gophers. The middle-tier is still a bit murky and teams should start to separate themselves as we get into conference play here in the next week.
Michigan State: Deep, talented, experienced, and with tremendous star power. Miles Bridges is obviously one of the top players in the country and can beat you from all levels on the floor. He shoots 44% from three so you need to get a hand up, but when he drives he has a quick first step that is nearly impossible to defend. Cassius Winston has taken a jump as a sophomore and scored a career high 28 points in a PK80 game last week. When him and Langford are making shots and Jackson/Ward are doing their thing in the post, the Spartans are a nearly impossible out, especially with the way they defended in a blowout win over UNC.
Minnesota: Starting five is as good as anyone in the country. The frontcourt of Lynch/Murphy is combining to average 33 points/20 rebounds and over five blocks per game. When the guards are shooting well (Coffey/Mason/McBrayer are al over 40% from three), the Gophers can overwhelm you with their offensive firepower and ability to get stops on defense using their length and anchor with Lynch down low. If Minnesota can stay healthy and keep Lynch/Murphy on the court for 25 plus minutes per game, there is no reason they should finish lower than third in the conference standings.
Purdue: Lots of depth and good, but not elite talent. Isaac Haas and Matt Harms are a huge combo down low, they are a combined 14'8" together. Carsen Edwards and Vince Edwards are their stars at guard and wing, respectively, with Edwards having to play more of the four spot this year with the loss of Swanigan. Purdue has three really good three-point shooters in Cline, Thompson and Mathias and the team is loaded with NCAA Tournament experience. While I think Purdue is definitely a top five Big Ten team, they are no better than a round of 32 or maybe Sweet 16 team if they get the right matchups.
Maryland: They took a tough loss early to St. Bonaventure without the Bonnies best player, so that was a bad sign. I thought they looked good against Syracuse on the road last week, but just didn't have enough to break through. I like the sophomore combination of Cowan, Huerter and Jackson. Cowan is a tough and clever floor general who is leading the team in scoring and assists. Huerter can shoot the lights out from three and showed that with six of them against Cuse. Jackson had a nice freshman year but has really struggled out of the game, shooting just 25% from three so far. Freshman Bruno Fernando is an absolute monster down low and is already averaging 10/5 through seven games, he will be a future star. I think Maryland will play everyone tough this year, especially at home, would be surprised if they are not a tournament team.
Penn State: This may be a bit of a hot take, but I can see the Nittany Lions finishing fifth in the conference this year. The team has gone through lumps the past few years under Pat Chambers but I think they finally have enough talent and experience to earn their first tournament bid in seven years. They defend hard and have enough scoring punch to keep every game respectable. Their loss to A&M came down to the wire before the Aggies pulled away late. They have a tough test at NC State tonight and a win could be big come March. I really like Tony Carr as a point guard and Lamar Stevens on the wing. The Lions have five players averaging double figures right now and Mike Watkins is the second-best shot blocker in the Big Ten behind Reggie Lynch. They have the pieces to make a run.
Iowa: The Hawkeyes are off to a dreadful start to the season and have already lost games to UL-Lafayette, South Dakota State and in convincing fashion to Virginia Tech, who should be an NCAA tournament team themselves. They struggled to guard anyone last night against Virginia Tech and the team really lacks athleticism besides Tyler Cook and reserve Cordell Pemsl. Bohannon is a steady point-guard who averages 14 per game and shoots 48% from three, but he has trouble defending more athletic guards. Isaiah Moss is having a breakout year averaging 13.9 points per game, but we will see if that holds up in conference play. The Hawkeyes still have first weekend NCAA talent in my opinion, and the depth that can allow them to sustain an injury or two. A favorable start to conference play has me thinking Iowa is still a top half of the conference team when it is all said and done.
Northwestern: The Wildcats have disappointed big time to start the season. A home loss to Creighton, a blowout loss to Texas Tech and a buzzer beating road loss to Georgia Tech have them searching for answers after their first NCAA bid in school history last season. Bryant McIntosh and Vic Law are All-Big Ten level players but I don't love the overall depth and talent of this team. Pardon is a force down low and Lindsey stretches the defense but the team is getting absolutely nothing out of their bench. If they suffer an injury to any of these four it could be a long season, and their starting five getting overwhelmed by a team like Texas Tech is a really bad sign. A favorable start to conference play should get the Wildcats back on track, but they could be entering it with four non-conference losses after going to Oklahoma in late December. The biggest improvements Northwestern needs to make are on the defensive end right now.
Michigan: John Beilein is getting plenty out of future NBA Draft pick Mo Wagner and Kentucky transfer Charles Matthews. Duncan Robinson and Abdur-Rahkman also average in double-figures but no one else scores more than 4.6 points per game. The talent level overall is down for a really consistent Michigan program, but Beilein has done more with less before, which is why I can see them challenging for a top half finish in the Big Ten. This team is very dependent on their top four players as each plays about 30 minutes plus per night. They need to get more out of Jordan Poole, a freshman sharpshooter who is making 55% of his threes but scores just 4.6 points per game. If they avoid injuries and play together they are a bubble NCAA team. Big litmus test coming at North Carolina this week.
Wisconsin: The Badgers have lost four games this season, but all four have been to top 25 teams, with three of them coming away from the Kohl Center. The team still doesn't have very good overall talent outside of Ethan Happ, who is putting up first-team All-Big Ten numbers once again, and true freshman Minnesota native Brad Davison. Davison has already been hurt in the Baylor and Virginia games with the same left shoulder injury, and it doesn't look like something that is going away anytime soon. If Wisconsin loses him and/or Happ for any large portion of the season, this could be a disastrous year for the Badgers. I still think they will be respectable and win the games they should at home, but I have a hard time seeing this team making a bid for the NCAA Tournament right now, especially after dropping four games early and still having to go to Temple in the non-conference. They need more out of Pritzl, Iverson and King to get any higher than 7/8 in the conference this year.
Illinois: I think Brad Underwood has the Illini closer to an NCAA Tournament team than we may think. They started 6-0 before a road loss to a 2-4 Wake Forest team, but it should be taken as a learning experience for the young and inexperienced bunch. I really like freshman guard Mark Smith, who was a terrific late recruiting haul that decided to stay home and play for his hometown team. Former four-star recruit Aaron Jordan has been shooting the heck out of the ball this year, averaging 13 points per game and hitting 65% of his threes. Leron Black is this team's best frontcourt player and averages 14/5, Finke is a slightly above average Big Ten center. This team has enough talent to win 6-8 Big Ten games and next year could be a potential NCAA Tournament team if they keep building their young talent base.
Ohio State: The Buckeyes are in a weird stage right now. They have a few former top recruits in the system who are now seniors in Keita Bates-Diop and Jae'Sean Tate, mixed with some young talent in the Wesson brothers, Kyle Young, Mica Potter and Musa Jallow. I don't love this team's overall talent but Tate and Bates-Diop are two really good players who can lead the Buckeyes to a couple surprising home wins this year for sure. I don't think this team is close to NCAA good and it will take some time for OSU to get back to where they once were. But if Bates-Diop keeps averaging 17/10 he is going to get a shot at the NBA with his size and athleticism. He is a mismatch nightmare. I still think this team struggles to defend with no true rim protector, and that showed against Gonzaga in a blowout loss last week.
Nebraska: Tim Miles is in a crucial year with the Huskers. In a year which has seen both the athletic director and football coach fired for less than ideal performances, Miles will need to prove why he is the right guy to lead Nebraska back to the NCAA's. Georgetown transfer Isaac Copeland is a problem in the frontcourt. He is 6'9" and can make shots out to 24 feet while also being able to finish at the hoop. Miami transfer James Palmer is their second best player on the wing. Isaiah Roby is an intriguing frontcourt piece who is very long and athletic, he could be an elite defender. Overall, I don't think this team has enough shooting options. Glynn Watson is a crafty point guard but shoots just 28% from three. Jordy Tshimanga is the starting center but really isn't much of a threat to score with his back to the basket, averaging just over three points per game. A brutal stretch awaits the Huskers as they host Boston College, travel to Michigan State, host Minnesota, go to Creighton, and then host Kansas. That is four top 20 teams, three top 12 teams and two true road games. Yikes.
Rutgers: I still don't think the Knights have enough quality scoring options, but I did like what I saw from them for about 35 minutes in a valiant effort home loss to Florida State. Freshman Geo Baker leads the team in scoring at 12.3 points per game and more reinforcements are coming in next year in four-star Montez Mathis and wing Ron Harper Jr. Corey Sanders is a talented but inconsistent point guard, averaging over 13 points but on just 37% from the field and 17% from three. Deshawn Freeman is a consistent double-double threat in the frontcourt and Mike Williams stretches the floor with his shooting from three. The team defense is what has really taken a step forward in year two of the Steve Piekiell era, and that's what will keep Rutgers close in games this year. They need to win games in the 50's and 60's.
Indiana: From two Big Ten titles in his last four years for Tom Crean on the job to one of the least talented teams in the conference. The Hoosiers are in a full-rebuilding stage under new coach Archie Miller, but he is bringing in the talent that will eventually lead them back to national relevance. The Hoosiers have a brutal schedule coming up with games against Duke, Notre Dame, Iowa and Louisville. Robert Johnson is a senior guard who leads the team in scoring at 13.7 per game but he shouldn't be your best player, rather a quality role guy.Juwan Morgan and De'Ron Davis are quality frontcourt pieces, but the depth that Indiana has is questionable at best. Devonte Green and Curtis Jones are intriguing pieces in the backcourt, but Jones has shot just 29% from the field in his sophomore year. Could be a long season for Indiana.
