Big 10 BB Schedule and Road to NCAA (long)
- By Gopher Rube
- Inside Gopher Nation
- 16 Replies
So, I've seen at least a little bit of all the other B10 teams and of course the Gophers. Because of the unbalanced scheduling in the conference I wanted to take a look at how the Gopher schedule stacked up and what might be the keys to making a run at the NCAA bubble. Here are my thoughts.
I think there are fairly clearly 3 tiers of teams in the B10 this year. (Kenpom rankings in parentheses)
NCAA Locks: Indiana (16), Purdue (12), Wisconsin (8) and Michigan St. (38)
MSU has struggled a little early with a very, very difficult schedule but assuming Miles Bridges gets healthy they will compete for the B10 title.
Bottom Feeders: Rutgers (139), Penn St (99), Iowa (87), Nebraska (75)
Nebraska isn't bad and easily the best of this group. They could eek up to the middle tier and I still think they are probably in this group but they could surprise this year. Iowa is young and could get better as the season goes on but they are so bad defensively.
The rest of the teams fall in the middle in almost any order. I think probably 2-3 of these teams will make the NCAA some way.
Battling for tourney: Michigan (28), Ohio St. (33), Northwestern (43), Minnesota (55), Maryland (63), Illinois (71).
So it really comes down to how these middle 6 teams perform so I wanted to take a look at their schedules and see how many times each team plays the top 4 teams and the bottom 4 teams. So to rank their strength of schedule I'd rank them this way.
So Maryland and Illinois luck out with the schedule this year. Illinois is a fragile team. Our game with them will be important although it's on the road.
So what is Minnesota's road to the tourney. I think here is my map.
That should do it. There you go. Easy peasy lemon squeezy.
I think there are fairly clearly 3 tiers of teams in the B10 this year. (Kenpom rankings in parentheses)
NCAA Locks: Indiana (16), Purdue (12), Wisconsin (8) and Michigan St. (38)
MSU has struggled a little early with a very, very difficult schedule but assuming Miles Bridges gets healthy they will compete for the B10 title.
Bottom Feeders: Rutgers (139), Penn St (99), Iowa (87), Nebraska (75)
Nebraska isn't bad and easily the best of this group. They could eek up to the middle tier and I still think they are probably in this group but they could surprise this year. Iowa is young and could get better as the season goes on but they are so bad defensively.
The rest of the teams fall in the middle in almost any order. I think probably 2-3 of these teams will make the NCAA some way.
Battling for tourney: Michigan (28), Ohio St. (33), Northwestern (43), Minnesota (55), Maryland (63), Illinois (71).
So it really comes down to how these middle 6 teams perform so I wanted to take a look at their schedules and see how many times each team plays the top 4 teams and the bottom 4 teams. So to rank their strength of schedule I'd rank them this way.
1. Michigan: 7 vs. top (Wisc, MSU, IU 2x) and 5 vs. bottom (Neb 2x) - They have a murder schedule in the middle. In one month the Play Wiscy, MSU and IU all twice. Easier finish for them.
2. OSU: 6 vs top (MSU & Wisc 2x) and 5 bottom (Neb 2x) - OSU and Minn are very similar but give OSU slight nod because Neb 2x is tougher than PSU 2x imo. They have tough early schedule and tough late but fairly soft in the middle.
3. Minnesota: 6 vs top (MSU & Wisc 2x); 5 bottom (PSU 2x); Minnesota starts off brutal with 5 of the first 8 games on the road. And isn't really much of a soft spot anywhere although certainly easier toward the end. It's too bad with a young team as it'd be nice to have a bit easier go early and hopefully build confidence but it is what it is.
4. Northwestern; 6 vs top (PU and IU) and 6 vs. bottom (Rut and Neb 2x): NW schedule is really easy early on before it toughens up some but could this be the first ever tourney appearance for NW? Schedule certainly gives them a shot.
5. Illinois: 4 vs. top (all once) and 6 vs bottom (PSU & Iowa) Almost as easy as you can get.
6. Maryland: 4 vs. top (all once) and 6 vs. bottom (Iowa & Rut 2x): As easy as you can get.
2. OSU: 6 vs top (MSU & Wisc 2x) and 5 bottom (Neb 2x) - OSU and Minn are very similar but give OSU slight nod because Neb 2x is tougher than PSU 2x imo. They have tough early schedule and tough late but fairly soft in the middle.
3. Minnesota: 6 vs top (MSU & Wisc 2x); 5 bottom (PSU 2x); Minnesota starts off brutal with 5 of the first 8 games on the road. And isn't really much of a soft spot anywhere although certainly easier toward the end. It's too bad with a young team as it'd be nice to have a bit easier go early and hopefully build confidence but it is what it is.
4. Northwestern; 6 vs top (PU and IU) and 6 vs. bottom (Rut and Neb 2x): NW schedule is really easy early on before it toughens up some but could this be the first ever tourney appearance for NW? Schedule certainly gives them a shot.
5. Illinois: 4 vs. top (all once) and 6 vs bottom (PSU & Iowa) Almost as easy as you can get.
6. Maryland: 4 vs. top (all once) and 6 vs. bottom (Iowa & Rut 2x): As easy as you can get.
So Maryland and Illinois luck out with the schedule this year. Illinois is a fragile team. Our game with them will be important although it's on the road.
So what is Minnesota's road to the tourney. I think here is my map.
Must win games (4 wins): Iowa, Penn St, Nebraska and @Rutgers
Simply can't lose any of these games
2 of 3 Home Wins (2 wins): Ohio St, Maryland, Michigan
I think we can get 2 of these 3 at home and if we can't we probably don't deserve a bid anyway as we aren't good enough.
2 of 5 Road Wins (2 wins): NW, Penn St, Illinois, Ohio St, Maryland
I think it's realistic, although certainly not easy, to try and steal 2 of these 5 games. OSU and NW might be the toughest ones to get.
That gets us to 8 wins in the conference. Then if you could just STEAL one win at home from MSU, Wisconsin or IU that puts you at 9-9 in conference and puts you in a very good position to make the NCAA as you'll have one top 20 RPI win and probably 7 top 100 rpi wins.
Simply can't lose any of these games
2 of 3 Home Wins (2 wins): Ohio St, Maryland, Michigan
I think we can get 2 of these 3 at home and if we can't we probably don't deserve a bid anyway as we aren't good enough.
2 of 5 Road Wins (2 wins): NW, Penn St, Illinois, Ohio St, Maryland
I think it's realistic, although certainly not easy, to try and steal 2 of these 5 games. OSU and NW might be the toughest ones to get.
That gets us to 8 wins in the conference. Then if you could just STEAL one win at home from MSU, Wisconsin or IU that puts you at 9-9 in conference and puts you in a very good position to make the NCAA as you'll have one top 20 RPI win and probably 7 top 100 rpi wins.
That should do it. There you go. Easy peasy lemon squeezy.